Along with the polls above, lets speculate on 'who gets Toyota's lost market share? .... and, how much (what percent) of market share do they lose? For example, if their share of the market currently is 16% and you think their share will go down to 14%, then they will lose 2% of market share. For percent, assume the period of time is all of calendar year 2010.

Edited February 1, 201016 yr by regfootball

I think Hyundai stands to benefit the most, right at the time when they have several new models coming out this year. The Hyundai assurance, new Sonata, Tucson, and Elantra, (Genesis) and the general movement that had already started by the CR fanbois from Toyota to Hyundai will continue at a more brisk pace now.

I predict a little more than 3 percent loss of share.

Ford and Honda will otherwise benefit the most after Hyundai group. In the luxury arena, I think Infiniti gets a jolt from Lexus customers.

Edited February 1, 201016 yr by regfootball

I think Ford will gain the most. The new Sonota isn't in showrooms en' mass yet and the old one just isn't up to snuff <had one for a rental last week>. With all of the positive press out for Ford, Car of the Year, 2.3 Billion profit, didn't take government bailout, didn't declare bankruptcy, and the fact they have their ducks in a row with the Fusion and Taurus, the only way it could have been timed better would be if the new Fiesta and Focus were on lots today.

Hyundai will be second with SUVs uptake.

Buick might snatch a few ES and RX drivers, IS drivers might look at a CTS but they're more likely to head to BMW or Infiniti. No telling where all three GS buyers might end up.

Malibu should do ok, but it's been on the market long enough now for the "new" to have worn off. Cobalt doesn't have a chance except with bare bones Corolla drivers. Chevy dealers will have an even tougher time keeping Equinoxes on the lot if they can get a RAV-4 driver through the door.

The "obvious" ones of Honda and Nissan I think won't gain as much. Altima seems to be the oldest in it's class at the moment and the "new" has washed off the Accord just like it has Malibu.

Some of the drum beat I'm seeing on the twitterverse is there is a small but growing distrust of Japanese brands now. First Sony and then Toyota, followed by a much smaller recall by Honda.

Edit: I voted Ford and "4% - 5%". With the largest market share, they naturally have the most to lose.

I think Toyota sheeple are more forgiving than most. They are bigger apologists for the brand than perhaps even us GM people are for GM! I predicted a 1-2% market share loss. I also voted Hyundai/Kia but I think Honda is probably cross shopped more with Toyota. I agree that the three that will benefit the most are Hyundai/Kia, Honda and Ford but I'm sure everybody's market share will be bumped a little by this.

Edited February 1, 201016 yr by 2QuickZ's

Honda has stated they will not take advantage of Toyota's position by offering incentives for Toyota drivers. So far, Honda and Nissan are the only two of the major players that aren't doing so. I suppose since they're Japanese that may be why.

I think Toyota sheeple are more forgiving than most. They are bigger apologists for the brand than perhaps even us GM people are for GM!

I think this case is slightly different in that it's not that Toyota had a need to recall but how they handled the whole situation. If it comes out in those congressional hearings that Toyota did in fact know of this issue since 2004, they're going to be deflated quite a bit.

to me, i hope this raises a note of awareness to any of these states or cities that offer millions in incentives for a foreign carmaker to set up shop. because now its proof, they are fallible. Toyota needs to tread carefully here or the foreign backlash could be huger than was already underway since the market crash.

so did any of Jan sales results give any indication of who is benefitting?

Same company who gained from the recession. Hyundai/Kia.

Also, only 7%? I think it will be much more than that. They've closed plants, FFS.