William Maley

Editor/Reporter - CheersandGears.com

May 21, 2012

The annual "Car Wars" report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that Ford, General Motors and Toyota will gain back share and that Hyundai and Kia will lose share by 2016.

The report is based on the rate at which automakers launch new products. Ford has the highest rate with 26% of the lineup being replaced by 2016. GM follows next with 25% and Toyota is next with 24%. The report says with these replacement rates, Ford should gain 0.8% of market share, GM with 0.5%, and Toyota with 0.3%.

The big losers? The report says that will be Hyundai and Kia since they do not have a high replacement rate. Their market share should drop by 0.5%.

Source: Bloomberg

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Umm, isn't there a HUGE amount of assumption in that?

Umm, isn't there a HUGE amount of assumption in that?

well, i think all it is is an assumption isn't it?

i wonder what 25% will be replaced?

CTS impala Trucks SUV's Corvette Camaro Lambdas

I'd like to see Kia come out wit a compact, ladder frame pickup truck. Wit a diesel.

Edited May 22, 201213 yr by ocnblu

Umm, isn't there a HUGE amount of assumption in that?

well, i think all it is is an assumption isn't it?

i wonder what 25% will be replaced?

CTS impala Trucks SUV's Corvette Camaro Lambdas

+ Thetas

Must be nice to know lots of "nothing". How can they even tell how models will be successful?

Well, there is a pattern. When new cars are released, sales peak and then taper off. The speed at which they taper off is typically a measure of how successful a given vehicle is. The CTS is still tapering off and a new model will most likely invigorate the line.

So the premise then becomes, the manufacturer with the most vehicles due to be replaced/introduced is the manufacturer with the most potential upside on their sales figures.

Now, this premise isn't always true... witness the current Civic for proof of that. If Honda does a repeat on the Accord, they'll be in serious trouble.

With Chevy and Ford... we've seen the new Impala and new Fusion. Impala sales will be down in terms of raw numbers, but I imagine transaction prices will be way up. I think the Fusion has a really good chance to capture first place in the segment.

Now with this report out, Hyundia and Kia can plan to make sure they keep selling to some hot looking models. Even though I think they are freakin ugly.

Na, the pipeline is too long for too much reaction in either direction.

I have found myself very tempted by the new Fusion. Gotta love that dramatic grill. I think Nissan was supposed to launch 7 new models this year also. The new Altima looks a bit staid to me though. I guess Volkswagon's plans for world domination might not come to fruition?

The Altima isn't as dramatic as the Fusion, but it is light weight, airy feeling inside, and even in pre-production form, seems to have all the basics covered in a really attractive package.