ehaase

GM's stock was down again today, so the announcement did not impress the Wall Street Crowd. Maria Bartiromo was almost hysterical wanting to know when GM will turn around in her interviews regarding the plant closing.

Are we positive about that? It doesn't seem that anything beyond 2008 is certain.

Based upon these plant closings, it looks like all Buick will have by the 2009 model year is Lucerne and Enclave.

Then it's sounds like this is much ado about nothing. Just an effort to try to make the Wall Street Journal and the talking heads on CNBC happy. All that's really closing is the Lansing Craft Center, Oklahoma City, and the minivan plant near Atlanta.

I don't play flame war games. I know that politics would not be in the top ten reasons for closing these plants.

I am sure that politics is not even in the top ten reasons for these decision, but I am sure that Senate Majority Frist is not very happy about losing a plant in his state.

I wonder if it's a coincidence that the many of the GM plants being closed are in Republican dominated states (Tennessee, Georgia, Oklahoma). The GOP is least likely to bail out GM and certainly would never consider national health care. There is a strong likelihood that the Atlanta, GA area will lose two assembly plants - both the GM minivans plant and Ford's Taurus plant near the airport. The latest rumors are that Ford will not build the new Lincolns there; instead, the Lincolns may be built either in Chicago or in Wixom.

Perhaps the Lucerne and Enclave will be the only Buick products after the 2008 model year.

The future of the Grand Prix and GTO is the big question. Some have even posted doubts about the Vibe's future. Only the Solstice and G6 seem solid for now. Ted's chart shows the Torrent going to GMC when the Equinox is redesigned around 2009.

Failure to update the mid size cars enough is one big reason why GM and Buick (and why Oldsmobile is dead) have problems. The Century went 15 years with only minor changes (1982 to 1996) and then went another 8 years with hardly any changes (1997 to 2004). And of course, the LaCrosse isn't what it should be. A lot of people buying Camrys should have be buying Buicks, but GM has lost those customers forever. These bread and butter cars need to be updated at most every 5 years. I think that GM gets the message, with the Malibu being redesigned in 2008 after only 4 years, but it may be too little too late.

I have always been the most shy and quiet person I know, but I forced myself to do my schoolwork and get good grades in high school and college and do well in my career. I was made fun of in school because of my shyness and because I was horrible at sports, but I did the work that I was expected to do. I am at the highest position I can be in in the federal government agency I work for, without being in management. If you were my son, I wouldn't put up with this foolishness. You are a smart boy, and this is all a bunch of nonsense. As everyone can tell from my posts, I am not the smartest person around, but I have always tried to do what I was expected to do. You are just going to have to stop making excuses and goofing around and get to work.

It's nice, but the Envoy is enough for Buick-Pontiac-GMC dealers. Some of my favorite posters here want Buick and Pontiac to continue with full lineups, but I don't.

If I recall correctly, Mazda was only planning on selling 10,000 to 15,000 Mazda5's per year.

Rainier sales aren't good.

See GMT177 at http://www3.sympatico.ca/tedkrygier/future.htm. I think this chart is fairly accurate. He has at least one good source for this chart. He just updated for the Cadillac and Saab TE platform vehicles, which Evok recently revealed at GMI. Of course, anything beyond the 2008 model year and 2007 calendar year is probably subject to change. I have my doubts about GMX022, GMT962 (at leat the Buick portion), and GMX 276, but this is my uneducated guess.

My understanding is that the Pontiac Torrent may be transferred to GMC when the Equinox is redesigned. I do agree with this because I think that a GMC crossover will sell better than a Pontiac or Buick crossover. GMC has long been successful selling rebaged Chevrolets. Because of the HHR, I don't know that Chevy needs a smaller crossover. I think that GM considers the HHR as a crossover. I believe that the next generation Vue will have similar styling to the T2X.

I don't see any new cars that will "tank," but I think that the Honda Civic will be the only big success of the bunch. It seems that Ford and GM only have moderate expectations of most of their new models.

Do these message boards really have any impact on top GM executives as to whether they should resurrect the Camaro? The Camaro should only come back if there is a strong business case for it and if it will be substantially profitable.

GM should close as many plants as needed to get production in line with demand (roughly 20 percent of the market). I read in Business Week today that the average transaction price of a GM car is $21,000, while the average transaction price of a Toyota product is $24,500. GM needs to reduce supply so that it doesn't have to rely on all of these incentives and get its average transaction price close to Toyota's. In the next round of negotiations with the unions, GM should not negotiate or compromise with the UAW and CAW on plant closures, even it results in a strike. I don't know exactly what plants should close (probably those farthest away from the upper Mid West and Great Lakes states where most of the suppliers are), but GM should only operate the plants that will help it maximize profits. That probably means mostly closing U.S. plants and keeping open the plants in Mexico and Canada (because of health care costs). Ending the jobs bank should also be non-negotiable for GM in the next contract negotiations, even the UAW and CAW strike. GM should also demand the UAW accept the same health care plan as white color workers, even if results in a strike. Short of bankruptcy, GM is probably stuck with the pension liabilities, but I don't think that bankruptcy is the best choice for GM.

I know that he has been posting at some message board just about Oldsmobiles. He really has always been much more interested in Oldsmobiles, especially the 1991 to 1996 Ninety Eight, than he is in GM or the auto industry in general.

Which is what I believe will happen. And I don't think GM will declare bankruptcy for the next 5 to 10 years, even though Wall Street seems to want it to. It will generate enough cash just to survive and pay its bills. But I do think that Buick will have no more than 3 or 4 vehicles in its lineup. GM just doesn't have the money to return Buick to its glory days.

I predict that GM does not declare bankruptcy and just continues struggling and treading water for at least the next 5 to 10 years. Wall Street won't be happy, because it wants GM to declare bankruptcy and shed itself of the pension liabilities, health care costs, and a couple divisions. Hopefully, the GMT900's, the Lambdas, and the Cadillacs generate enough cash to keep things going.

I rely upon the sales figures in Automotive News, not my personal observations. Impala sales were down about 20 pervent in October. Avalon sales more than tripled compared to last year. Civic sales were up about 5 percent. Sales of the M35/45 are up 15 times from last year.

I guess that the bottom line is that Southern California (and this is probably true for the Bay Area as well) is a wonderful place if you are already there. It's very difficult for a middle class person moving to California from a low cost area. I plan to visit there next year and know that I will be impressed.

http://reese.king-online.com/Reese_20051114/index.php California is ungovernable.